The outlook for 2009 is unusually certain. The Canadian and US economies will contract over much of the year. The duration of the contraction is difficult to say – perhaps the entire year and perhaps into 2010.  Anyone who forecasts the exact depth and duration is guessing, that is, using the macro models that did not

Warning! This site provides competitive advantage to UW students and alumni; other persons must cease reading immediately. The failure of the global capital markets that began in mid-2007 became systemic through 2008. Not surprisingly, economic activity slowed dramatically in most of the major industrial countries.  At the end of the year, the output of most countries was contracting

The first commentary on the state of the global economy will be posted just before Christmas.  It will review the year just past and look forward to the tumult that awaits.